Let's Protect Your Retirement Portfolio Part II!
Let's Protect Your Retirement Portfolio Part II!
President Trump makes a market moving speech to Americans and the world tonight
The risk for your portfolio tonight: if Trump delivers a credible off-ramp, oil collapses further and your gold miner reload window opens.
If he escalates — ground troops, Kharg Island seizure, NATO withdrawal — all bets are off.
And there's an interesting detail buried in the Fortune coverage: the UAE is reportedly willing to join the war to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Fortune If he announces a coalition to reopen Hormuz, that changes everything.
After spending the weekend talking with my Pentagon pals/sources, reading oil and gas reports from oil executives, and reading every major financial media source, my FEAR is
The timing of this price-of-oil/stagflation economic scenario is that you, I, and my wealth management clients are now facing
8500 US troops “on the ground” in Iran, and the fear is
The consequences of invading Iran’s Ghargh Island and destroying the oil pipeline and fuel refinery capacity
MAKES THE case for the duration of this war is a LOT LONGER--and it’s NOT “just a few weeks more” with boots on the ground in Iran
The odds of going from a 11% price correction in our favorite high/long-lived secular Ultra Growth stocks to 20%+ down in value with troops on the ground is a virtual certainty UNLESS Trump does the right thing here
But there are two significant developments today that are moving markets:
What Actually Happened Today
Development #1 — Trump signals willingness to end the war WITHOUT reopening Hormuz:
Trump told his aides that he was willing to end US operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remained shut, administration officials told The Wall Street Journal. CNBC This is a major shift from his previous position demanding Hormuz reopen as a precondition for any deal. Trump and his aides had concluded that a mission to reopen the waterway would extend beyond his four-to-six-week timeline. Euronews
That's a significant concession — he's essentially acknowledging that forcing Hormuz open militarily is beyond what the US can accomplish quickly.
Development #2 — Iran's President says Iran is ready to stop fighting:
Iranian state media reported that Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country is ready to stop fighting, provided it knows it won't be attacked again. "We have never sought tension or war at any stage, and we have the necessary resolve to end this war if the required conditions are met, especially the necessary guarantees to prevent a recurrence of aggression," Pezeshkian said. CNN
Reports of comments along those lines sent stocks higher around midday after an earlier rebound from comments by Trump administration officials on ending the war. CNN
What Has NOT Been Agreed To
The two sides remain far apart on specifics. Iran has publicly rejected the US 15-point plan and offered its own five conditions: a halt to all aggression and assassinations; mechanisms to ensure the war doesn't resume; payment of war damages and reparations; an end to US and Israeli attacks on Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq; and international recognition of Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Time
Those conditions are essentially non-starters for Washington — particularly war reparations and sovereignty over Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Trump is still threatening escalation with the other hand. Today he expressed frustration with allies, telling them to "go get your own oil" as average US gas prices passed $4 a gallon. The Washington Post And yesterday he was threatening to "obliterate" Iran's power plants, oil wells, and desalination infrastructure.
Which I assume SOMEONE told him the Geneva Convention considers those bombings a war crime (not good for a guy who desperately wants the Nobel Peace Prize)
Does This Provide a Path to Ending the War?
Maybe — but let’s be real…that path is fragile and contradictory. The path would look something like this: Pakistan hosts direct US-Iran talks in the coming days, both sides agree to a limited ceasefire to create negotiating space, and they work backward from the most urgent issue (Hormuz/oil supply) toward the harder questions (nuclear program, reparations, regime structure).
But several things argue against a quick resolution. While Netanyahu said Trump "believes there is an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements" to realize war objectives through an agreement, it was notable that Netanyahu did not explicitly say he shared Trump's assessment. The Hill Israel may want to continue strikes even if the US stops.
The April 6 deadline is still live: Trump paused attacks on energy infrastructure for 10 days to Monday, April 6, at 8 PM Eastern Time. If no deal materializes by then, the escalation threat returns.
The most honest assessment: both sides appear to want an off-ramp, but neither can politically afford to look like they're capitulating. I lived in DC for 20 years--NO politician wants to look weak or beaten.
The gap between their stated positions remains enormous. The market is treating today's signals as modestly positive but far from decisive — hence oil pulling back a couple percent rather than collapsing. A Brookings analyst probably said it best: "I feel like markets are so far underestimating the effect of the war. It seems that they expect this war to go quickly, and they expect that we can go back to the world as it was before when it's over."
For your portfolio positioning, the April 6 deadline is the next binary event. If it passes without a deal, expect oil to spike and equities to sell off. If talks produce a framework agreement before then, the oil premium unwinds fast — which is when your miner reload thesis activates (oil down, metals hold, diesel costs normalize, margin expansion).
Our Game Plan: Trust Yet Verify
First off, for the vainest human being I have ever met and interviewed for Fox Business years ago, I can tell you that the disastrous ratings on the Iran War and his negative polling numbers HAVE TO be killing Mr. Trump’s fragile ego.
But the now HIGH likelihood of the Trump TACO trade is why our managed accounts now 60-70% in CASH, aka money markets, are rapidly rebuilding secular growth stocks
Here are the AI Optical Networking/High Bandwidth Memory/Critical Military and Industrial Metals/& Post Iran War 2.0 Winning Sectors
We spent the last few days researching an extensive research report we created this week for a successful speech this evening--its worth printing out. We will add the our favorites to the Buy List favorites tomorrow AFTER the speech!
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1DgGIM_3o8UtPGLqeT6qL1Dfz5RyFjWVW8W6afAbi6fQ/edit?tab=t.0
And here is a report we created on the HBM/Optical networking sectors and plays we like the best
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1s2Wc10-fiyjBeX2R7ze_-z2j3h_s-93MyNG75nPFVD4/edit?tab=t.0
Not Worried About an Oil Shock? Chevron CEO, Other Energy Execs Sure Are.
The industry is just starting to grapple with the huge toll of the Iran war.
As my old friend from Barron’s, Avi Salzman, wrote last week: "An uncomfortable reality settled in this past week: There is no clear way to return the energy industry to its pre-Iran War state anytime soon."
High oil prices and LNG prices look like they’re here to stay and could stretch into 2027. Why?
Because even if the war ended next week, the world will be grappling with extreme shortages of oil and natural gas for many months. Too many wells have closed; too many supply chains are snarled.
Higher interest rates now means the pain from the war has spread from the directly impacted to pretty much everyone now. The exception, of course, are the oil and LNG companies that get a free ride off the hostilities.
Key Point: Let’s Not Wave the “All Clear Sign” Quite Yet
We heard endlessly about how our military took out Iran's launchers and their missile defenses, leaving the country without its ability to stop our offensive weapons from creating havoc.
But then Reuters reported on Friday that the U.S. can only confirm a third of Iran's missile arsenal has been exhausted, leaving us to believe they have more firepower than we do. By the end of the week, we realized we have a long war ahead that has gotten beyond the grasp of a president who thinks we have fought wars and didn't mind losing them, and Donald Trump is not one of the presidents who let that happen.
The difficult reality TODAY is that we no longer know what will end this war--hope the speech tonight gives us a real path. Nevertheless, higher gasoline prices have drowned out any hope of a rate cut among the chattering classes. I think Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, can easily get cuts through, assuming he's confirmed and takes over for Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May IF hostilities have ended.
Right now, bond yields — and the borrowing costs they influence, such as mortgage rates — are rising due to war-driven inflation concerns. We all recall the way that supply chain problems led to an inflation spike in the Covid-19 pandemic era. It's easy to imagine why people are concerned again.
There is NOT PLACE to hide in the bond market!
That is also why it is easy to imagine that rates could come down if the war ends. You get tariff annualization and a return to gasoline normalcy, then you get rate cuts when Warsh comes in. Until then, I think every stock market decline will be exacerbated by the inexorable rise in rates. Not good. It could be counteracted by a weaker employment number, given a slowing economy generally coincides with falling yields as investors seek out safety (bond yields move inversely to prices).
Tech companies are laying off people and causing people to be laid off. It could matter. I don't see employment getting in the way of rate cuts. But gasoline will make it so employment weakness like I expect from this Friday's nonfarm payrolls report won't matter.
The Bottom Line
Trump addresses the nation and world tonight on the status of the Iran War 2.0 and what is next.
I keep thinking that a double in oil has historically produced a 20% decline in stocks and WE NEED to be mentally prepared for that.
But if the war REALLY ends, oil immediately plummets, the CPI steadies itself, the labor market gets weaker still from AI and proactive layoffs by companies that fear higher rates or generative AI, and we get a real barn-burner rally.
The key is the one thing we don't know: does the president want to win the war, or declare victory on a stalemate? Either way brings a rally. If it's the latter, you will wish you had bought it starting this week.
What’s Working Now--Gold and Silver Miners + Our Favorite Optical Networking and High Bandwidth Memory Stocks Wiped Out by Profit taking
IN the short term, our Gold Miner ETFs $GDXU $JNUG are working and we will rebuild our HBM memory/Optical Networking/AI beneficiary positions ASAP.
Hang in there!
PS SpaceX shares--are in the ARK Venture Fund, which offers only limited liquidity. Investors can request redemptions quarterly, capped at 5% of the fund’s net asset value in each window, with no guarantee that all requests will be fulfilled if demand exceeds that level. The lack of daily trading makes the fund effectively illiquid. In exchange, the structure allows ARK to invest in private companies — while requiring investors to plan around infrequent, and potentially partial, cash-outs.
The three ETFs with SpaceX shares are ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX), Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA), and iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA).
Note: IF the Straight Hormuz actually reopens to escorted tanker traffic in the coming days, $80 oil is realistic. If it doesn't, and the war drags on another 4–6 weeks--, we're back above $100 fast.
Classic fog-of-war volatility. The algo traders and spec shorts are having a field day.
The Game Plan Till D-Day--It's Not Time to Be Brave--Yet
I have our managed accounts at 30% Money Market/30% Gold + Silver Miners/40% our Ultra Growth AI Data Tech Stack stocks. One thing for sure is the Q1 revenue, earnings reports and forward guidance from Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvel etc says there is NO SLOWDOWN in the secular growth AI Data Revolution.
Tomorrow we will officially be adding more High Bandwidth Memory/Optical Networking/AI Software players that we highlight in our two TR Ultra Growth Special Reports--so again--PRINT OUT our "Irreplaceable AI Tech Stack" Reports and get ready to start making MONEY again!
| Company | Ticker | Investment Amount | Investment Date | Buy In Stock Price | Price On 4/1/2026 | Inv. Value $ 4/1/2026 | Total Investment Change $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | NVDA | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $29.00 | $183.34 | $63,221 | $53,221 | 532% |
| SuperMicro (Sold 1/24) | SMCI | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $8.40 | $92.66 | $110,310 | $100,310 | 1003% |
| Applied Micro | AMD | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $95.00 | $199.45 | $20,995 | $10,995 | 110% |
| Taiwan Semi | TSM | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $83.50 | $353.96 | $42,390 | $32,390 | 324% |
| Broadcom | AVGO | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $62.90 | $332.74 | $52,900 | $42,900 | 429% |
| Arista Networks | ANET | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $34.25 | $139.40 | $40,701 | $30,701 | 307% |
| Pure Storage | PSTG | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $33.20 | $61.12 | $18,408 | $8,408 | 84% |
| Uranium X ETF | URA | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $21.90 | $50.09 | $22,872 | $12,872 | 129% |
| Centrus Energy | LEU | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $31.90 | $194.30 | $60,909 | $50,909 | 509% |
| TQQQ | TQQQ | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $28.70 | $49.80 | $17,352 | $7,352 | 74% |
| SOXL | SOXL | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $14.70 | $54.72 | $37,227 | $27,227 | 272% |
| Vertiv | VRT | $10,000 | 5/15/23 | $25.30 | $249.70 | $98,696 | $88,696 | 887% |
| 3X Gold Miners | GDXU | $10,000 | 9/15/24 | $32.50 | $315.20 | $96,985 | $86,985 | 870% |
| 3X Junior Gold Miners | JNUG | $10,000 | 9/15/24 | $38.24 | $270.84 | $70,826 | $60,826 | 608% |
| AGQ | AGQ | $10,000 | 9/15/25 | $38.24 | $145.94 | $38,164 | $28,164 | 282% |
| Amplify Jr Silver Miners | SILJ | $10,000 | 9/15/25 | $21.18 | $34.41 | $16,246 | $6,246 | 62% |
P.S.: We are sharing this email with both current and former subscribers. IF you are NOT a subscriber who has crushed the SP 500 by 8X since May 2023 with our AI Data Center portfolio--you can subscribe for the next 12 months for less than $100--we are adding dozens of new Ultra Growth stocks and ETFs over the next 60 days WITH an end to the Iran War--subscribe here!!
Toby