Let's Protect Your Retirement Portfolio Pt 2!
Key Point: With the breakdown of our silver mining positions below 50-moving averages, our sell stops on GDXU, JNUG, AGQ, SLJY have all hit, and we have built 60% cash positions in order to 1) protect our significant gains and 2) take advantage of opportunities sure to come!
NOTE: WE are sending this Portfolio Strategy to our current subscribers and non-current former subscribers because your retirement portfolio is STILL AT SIGNIFICANT risk if the United States of America + Israel actually fails to pull back on POTUS Trump's "We Demand the UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER of Iran!"
The VERY significant negative economic impacts and outcomes continue to spiral downward, which seriously raises the risk of the dreaded "Stagflation" for the US economy (and the EU as well), and is toxic for the US stock market and your stock and ETF portfolio.
And the Fed did no favors today for the stock market by holding the Fed Funds Rates at 3.5-3.75% rates
Key Point: the negative "second-order effects" of any war are impossible to anticipate--and so the global economy is now caught in a tug-of-war between two powerful opposing forces: on one side, the promise of a once-in-a-generation tech-driven productivity boom that could lift trend growth rates, suppress inflation and thus create capital markets nirvana.
Or--we wind up with a fractured world order and a landscape defined with MORE frequent military conflicts, economic warfare, and in general a "might makes right" ethos that risks growing nuclear proliferation (to avoid being the next Iran).
NOT trying to be alarmist, but I still worry about the Iranian hardliners--as one analyst writes, "their calculus is that patience will win out--that in the coming days the US and Israel will simply run out of missile interceptors, and they can proceed to inflict a LOT MORE DAMAGE and that Trump will come begging for a cease fire with terms THEY dictate.."
My Briefing From Close Active Military Friends Deployed to the Middle East
There net message is still "Toby--we are not close to 'Mission Accomplished' in this shitshow...and we are now neck deep into a MANY month slog here". In short, if we take out the NEW Ayatollah, Iran goes into chaos with the IRGC commanders vowing VENGEANCE on "The Great Satan." But even in the best case scenario--there is no unconditional surrender--this is not Tokyo or Berlin in 1945--and this is a country of 90 million and tens of millions of radical Muslims!"
The Bigger Picture
The EIA just released its updated outlook today, and its base case is: Brent crude will remain above $95 per barrel over the next two months before falling below $80 in Q3 2026 and around $70 by year-end, averaging $64 in 2027. U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's their modeled assumption based on the Strait gradually reopening as the conflict winds down.
What this tells you is that the oil market went from pricing in a worst-case scenario (permanent Hormuz closure, $120+ sustained) to suddenly pricing in a best-case scenario (Navy escort reopening shipping lanes, war ending soon). The truth is still somewhere in between.
Key Point: IF the Straight of Hormuz actually reopens to escorted tanker traffic in the coming days, below $80 oil is realistic. If it doesn't, and the war drags on another 4–6 weeks as the White House originally said, we're back above $100 fast.
Here are the best experts I know on where we REALLY ARE in the Iran War
THE MARKET IMPLICATIONS
The Mojtaba selection essentially eliminates any near-term diplomatic off-ramp. Iran chose the most defiant option possible — the martyred leader's own son, a hardliner with deep IRGC ties — and Trump responded by doubling down on unconditional surrender. Neither side has an incentive to blink right now.
For your portfolio positioning, this means: oil stays elevated or goes higher (Hormuz still disrupted, Israel now hitting oil infrastructure directly), defense spending accelerates (the interceptor/munitions burn rate guarantees a massive supplemental spending bill, helium stays offline (Qatar force majeure continues) and semiconductor manufacturing is the BIGGEST consumer of helium in the world, and gold remains caught in the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and the dollar/rate headwind from oil-driven inflation.
The 4–6 week timeline from the White House means this isn't resolving before the Fed's March 17–18 meeting or the CPI print tomorrow.
The Game Plan Till D-Day--It's Not Time to Be Brave--Yet
TR Ultra Growth AI Data Tech Stack + Silver/Gold Miners
Summary of Actual Gains by Stock Investment (Hypothetical $10,000 per Position)
| Company | Ticker | Investment Amount | Investment Date | Buy In Stock Price | Sold Price | Investment Value | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3X Gold Miners-SOLD | GDXU | $10,000 | 9/15/24 | $32.50 | $192.95 | $59,369 | $49,369 | 494% |
| 3X Junior Gold Miners-SOLD | JNUG | $10,000 | 9/15/24 | $38.24 | $193.71 | $50,656 | $40,656 | 407% |
| AGQ--SOLD | AGQ | $10,000 | 9/15/25 | $38.24 | $123.53 | $32,304 | $22,304 | 223% |
| Amplify Jr Slv Miners-SOLD | SILJ | $10,000 | 9/15/25 | $21.18 | $29.26 | $13,815 | $3,815 | 38% |
P.S.: We are sharing this email with both current and former subscribers. IF you are NOT a subscriber who has crushed the SP 500 by 8X since May 2023 with our AI Data Center portfolio--you can subscribe for the next 12 months for less than $100--we are adding dozens of new Ultra Growth stocks and ETFs over the next year--subscribe here!!
Toby