Let's Protect Your Retirement Portfolio! 

Let's Protect Your Retirement Portfolio! 

These last 9 days remind me of the famous quote attributed to Lenin: "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen."

Whether you love or despise the current President of the United States-- for the sake of your retirement investment portfolio and comfortable retirement, we need to help you position your portfolio to not only survive but BENEFIT from the global dislocations of the raw materials of the 21st century world economy that in some cases ONLY COME from the Middle East. . . 

. . . and take a slow mature approach to capital preservation as well as take advantage of unfounded fears and fear in general--like another quote I love from FDR--"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."

Key Point: And for sure, build your cash to 25%+ to take advantage of opportunities sure to come! 

NOTE: WE are sending this Emergency Portfolio Update to our current subscribers and non-current former subscribers because your retirement portfolio is a SIGNIFICANT risk if the United States of America + Israel actually carries through with the pledge the POTUS made in the last 48 Hours: "We Demand the UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER of Iran!"

Note: Knowing Donald Trump as I do from the multiple times I interviewed him for Fox Business, I am SURE he has no idea that the only "unconditional surrender" the United States implemented was in Japan and Germany at the end of World War II.

And there is NO WAY Congress would approve tens of thousands of US troops on the ground in Iran to enforce "unconditional surrender."

Key Point: But if POTUS Trump directs the US troops to "take out the NEW Ayatollah" and succeeds militarily -- the response from Iran and its proxies will be historic and Lord knows oil prices with a mined and blockaded Straight of Hormuz  -- where 20% or more of the world's lil comes would most likely create a US recession and 20% down US Bear Market. 

Key Point: Of course--we pray for the safe return of our brave and highly trained soldiers/sailors/pilots and all their support teams. 

But there are now VERY significant negative economic impacts and outcomes spiraling downward together that seriously raise the risk of the dreaded "Stagflation" for the US economy (and the EU as well), which is toxic for the US stock market and your stock and ETF portfolio.

For one thing, as Iran elected the son of Khohmeni on Sunday night as their new leader, THERE IS NO "regime change" and no unconditional surrender--it's quite the opposite. 

And "second-order effects" of any war are impossible to anticipate--and so the global economy is now caught in a tug-of-war between two powerful opposing forces: on on e side, the promise of a once-in-a-generation tech-driven productivity boom that could lift trend growth rates, suppress inflation and thus create capital markets nirvana.

Or--we wind up with a fractured world order and a landscape defined with MORE frequent military conflicts, economic warfare, and in general a "might makes right" ethos that risks growing nuclear proliferation (to avoid being the next Iran). 

NOT trying to be alarmist, but to be prudently practical. I worry about the Iranian hardliners--as one analyst writes, "their calculus is that patience will win out--that in the coming days the US  and Israel will simply run out of missile interceptors, and they can proceed to inflict a LOT MORE DAMAGE and that Trump will come begging for a cease fire with terms THEY dictate.."

My Briefing From a Close Active Military Friend Who Is Deployed to the Middle East

Here is an update on what is REALLY GOING ON in Iran and the expectations of the real duration of US soldiers/seamen/pilots and support personnel...and the net message is "Toby--we are not close to 'Mission Accomplished' in this shitshow...and we are now neck deep into a MANY month slog here".
 

THE NEW SUPREME LEADER: MOJTABA KHAMENEI

Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old second son of the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Al Jazeera, was selected as Iran's new supreme leader on Sunday, March 8, by the Assembly of Experts. Toby--this is a deeply significant and defiant choice.

First of course, I can confirm his father, mother, sister, wife, daughter, and young niece were killed in the U.S.-Israeli strike that launched the war on February 28. Mojtaba was obviously not present and survived. Key political leaders, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the armed forces were quick to pledge their backing. Al Jazeera

The selection was controversial internally. Iran International reported that IRGC commanders pressured Assembly of Experts members to vote for Mojtaba, with "repeated contacts and psychological and political pressure." The online meeting atmosphere was described as "unnatural." Those arguing against were given "limited time" to speak, and the discussion was cut off before a vote was held.


Note:  U.S. and Israeli bombs actually hit the Assembly of Experts' office in Qom after the votes had been cast but before the count was completed. 

Key Point: his selection is a clear sign that hardline factions retain power and could indicate that Iran has little desire to agree to a deal or negotiations in the short term. An Assembly member said the candidate was picked based on the late Khamenei's advice that Iran's top leader should "be hated by the enemy" rather than praised by it. 

In short, if we take out the NEW Ayatollah, Iran goes into chaos with the IRGC commanders vowing VENGEANCE on "The Great Satan." But even in the best case scenario--there is no unconditional surrender--this is not Tokyo or Berlin in 1945--and this is a country of 90 million and tens of millions of radical Muslims!" 

TRUMP'S "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" DEMAND

Trump wrote on Truth Social Friday: "There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" He added that after the current regime surrenders, "GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s)" must be selected. You know the result --the markets did not crash but oil prices exploded--and the term "stagflation" came out of hibernation. 

When pressed on what "unconditional surrender" actually means, Trump told Axios: "Unconditional surrender could be that the Iranians announce it. But it could also be when they can't fight any longer because they don't have anyone or anything to fight with." Axios

White House press secretary Leavitt defined it as Trump determining "that Iran can no longer pose a threat to the U.S." and listed four objectives: destroying Iran's navy, eliminating its ballistic missile threat, ensuring it cannot obtain a nuclear weapon, and weakening its regional proxies.

On Mojtaba specifically, Trump said: "He's going to have to get approval from us. If he doesn't get approval from us, he's not going to last long." NBC News He had earlier called Mojtaba a "lightweight" and "unacceptable." Israel said it would pursue any successor to Khamenei and target those participating in the selection process. Netanyahu said he seeks to "destabilize the regime and enable change." NPR

THE CONTRADICTORY EXIT STRATEGY

This is where it gets messy from a market perspective. Secretary of State Rubio reportedly told Arab foreign ministers the U.S. goal is not "regime change," while simultaneously asserting Washington wants different people running the country. Regional and global leaders are increasingly concerned that the U.S. and Israel are intent on toppling Iran's 47-year-old Islamic regime. The Soufan Center

By selecting Mojtaba, Iranian leaders realize they are further antagonizing the United States. Other candidates could have been more likely to satisfy U.S. demands — former President Rouhani or Hassan Khomeini. But even those figures all subscribe to the principles of the Islamic revolution. The Soufan Center

IRAN'S RESPONSE: NO SURRENDER

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC Nightly News that Iran is "not asking for a ceasefire" and is ready for any U.S. ground invasion. NBC News Trump responded that a ground invasion would be "a waste of time."

Russia's Putin pledged "unwavering support" for Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment, and China said it opposed any targeting of the new Supreme Leader. Al Jazeera

TODAY'S BATTLEFIELD UPDATE (March 11))

The White House said yesterday more than 5,000 enemy targets have been struck so far. Iran's ballistic missile attacks are down more than 90%, and drone attacks are down approximately 85% since the start of Operation Epic Fury. 

Trump said the U.S. is targeting "inactive" mine-laying boats in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it has already "completely destroyed" 10. 

Israel targeted Iran's oil facilities for the first time Saturday, with huge flames visible, while Tehran responded by hitting a desalination plant in Bahrain. NPR An Israeli military official told NPR that Israel needs three more weeks to accomplish its goal of wiping out Iran's military forces. NPR

Note: The Middle East depends heavily on desalination for drinking water:

  • Kuwait: 90% of drinking water comes from desalination Policy Center

  • Oman: 86% Policy Center

  • Saudi Arabia: 70%, with plans to cover more than 90% of the country's water consumption going forward Policy Center

  • UAE: 42% of drinking water comes from desalination plants producing more than 7 million cubic meters per day

 White House expects the war to last approximately four to six more weeks. Al Jazeera 

The Biggest SNAFU Yesterday: Energy Secretary Chris Wright's Deleted Post

My biggest worry about the prosecution of this war is NOT the US Military--It's Inexperienced US Cabinet Members and Iranian hardliners. And BOTH sides of this war erred greatly in their calculations and expectations about this major conflict. 

For example, oil's decline yesterday was accelerated by a social media post from U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright that NBC News later removed and the White House denied. Wright had posted on X that the "U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets."

Prices dropped more than 17% immediately after Wright's post. U.S. crude fell 11.94% to close at $83.45 per barrel. Brent declined 11.28% to settle at $87.80. CNBC
The White House then distanced itself from the post. Press secretary Leavitt said: "I was made aware of this post. I haven't had a chance to talk to the Energy Secretary about it directly. However, I know the post was taken down pretty quickly." 

So the market received a signal — possibly premature or mistaken — that the U.S. Navy was reopening Hormuz by force-escorting tankers. Whether true or not, it disrupted the "Hormuz is closed indefinitely" narrative that had been pushing oil toward $120+. The post being deleted created confusion, but the damage to the short squeeze had already been done.

Trump's "Very Complete, Pretty Much" Comment

This initiated the reversal yesterday. Trump told CBS News that he thinks "the war is very complete, pretty much," which markets interpreted as indicating the conflict could wind down sooner than the 4–6 week timeline the White House had projected. Oil dropped from nearly $120 to under $100 on that alone yesterday.

G7 Emergency Stockpile Discussions

The IEA called an emergency meeting of member countries to discuss a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves. While the G7 decided against releasing reserves for now, they indicated they are "ready to take necessary and coordinated steps to stabilize markets, such as strategic stockpiling." 

The Intraday Whipsaw
WTI plunged as much as 19%, slipping below $77 per barrel at one point, but then rebounded to around $89 by 4 PM. Brent briefly dropped 17% to below $80, then rose back above $90. 

The Bigger Picture

The EIA just released its updated outlook today, and its base case is: Brent crude will remain above $95 per barrel over the next two months before falling below $80 in Q3 2026 and around $70 by year-end, averaging $64 in 2027. U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's their modeled assumption based on the Strait gradually reopening as the conflict winds down.

What this tells you is that the oil market went from pricing in a worst-case scenario (permanent Hormuz closure, $120+ sustained) to suddenly pricing in a best-case scenario (Navy escort reopening shipping lanes, war ending soon). The truth is probably somewhere in between — the Wright post deletion and the White House denial suggest it may have been premature or aspirational, not yet operational.

If Hormuz actually reopens to escorted tanker traffic in the coming days, $80 oil is realistic. If it doesn't, and the war drags on another 4–6 weeks as the White House originally said, we're back above $100 fast.

Classic fog-of-war volatility. The algo traders and spec shorts are having a field day.

THE MARKET IMPLICATIONS

The Mojtaba selection essentially eliminates any near-term diplomatic off-ramp. Iran chose the most defiant option possible — the martyred leader's own son, a hardliner with deep IRGC ties — and Trump responded by doubling down on unconditional surrender. Neither side has an incentive to blink right now.

For your portfolio positioning, this means: oil stays elevated or goes higher (Hormuz still disrupted, Israel now hitting oil infrastructure directly), defense spending accelerates (the interceptor/munitions burn rate guarantees a massive supplemental spending bill, helium stays offline (Qatar force majeure continues) and semiconductor manufacturing is the BIGGEST consumer of helium in the world, and gold remains caught in the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and the dollar/rate headwind from oil-driven inflation.

The 4–6 week timeline from the White House means this isn't resolving before the Fed's March 17–18 meeting or the CPI print tomorrow.

The Game Plan Till D-Day--It's Not Time to Be Brave--Yet
I have our managed accounts at 30% Money Market/30% Gold + Silver Miners/40% our Ultra Growth AI Data Tech Stack stocks.  One thing for sure is the Q1 revenue, earnings reports and forward guidance from Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvel etc says there is NO SLOWDOWN in the secular growth AI Data Revolution.

Tomorrow we will officially be adding more High Bandwidth Memory/Optical Networking/AI Software players that we shared in September in our complete AI portfolio (we will resend that list updated tommorrow as well.)

Company Ticker Investment Amount Investment Date Buy In Stock Price Price on 3/5/2026 Inv. Value 3/5/2026 $ Gain % Gain
NvidiaNVDA$10,0005/15/23$29.00$183.34$63,221$53,221532%
SuperMicro (Sold 1/24)SMCI$10,0005/15/23$8.40$92.66$110,310$100,3101003%
Applied MicroAMD$10,0005/15/23$95.00$199.45$20,995$10,995110%
Taiwan SemiTSM$10,0005/15/23$83.50$353.96$42,390$32,390324%
BroadcomAVGO$10,0005/15/23$62.90$332.74$52,900$42,900429%
Arista NetworksANET$10,0005/15/23$34.25$139.40$40,701$30,701307%
Pure StoragePSTG$10,0005/15/23$33.20$61.12$18,408$8,40884%
Uranium X ETFURA$10,0005/15/23$21.90$50.09$22,872$12,872129%
Centrus EnergyLEU$10,0005/15/23$31.90$194.30$60,909$50,909509%
TQQQTQQQ$10,0005/15/23$28.70$49.80$17,352$7,35274%
SOXLSOXL$10,0005/15/23$14.70$54.72$37,227$27,227272%
VertivVRT$10,0005/15/23$25.30$249.70$98,696$88,696887%
3X Gold MinersGDXU$10,0009/15/24$32.50$315.20$96,985$86,985870%
3X Junior Gold MinersJNUG$10,0009/15/24$38.24$270.84$70,826$60,826608%
AGQAGQ$10,0009/15/25$38.24$145.94$38,164$28,164282%
Amplify Jr Silver MinersSILJ$10,0009/15/25$21.18$34.41$16,246$6,24662%

P.S.: We are sharing this email with both current and former subscribers. IF you are NOT a subscriber who has crushed the SP 500 by 8X since May 2023 with our AI Data Center portfolio--you can subscribe for the next 12 months for less than $100--we are adding dozens of new Ultra Growth stocks and ETFs over the next year--subscribe here!! 

Toby 

Gary Hlusko