April Stock Showers Have Brought May AI Tech Tech Stack + Infrastructure Flowers
May Newsletter Part I :
April 2 "Liberation Day": 30 Days Down 20% and Then Back Up?
YES, Because We Now Have the Trump PUT + the Fed PUT, and AI Capex Put!
Hey Reader,
Last week, I started posting our entire AI Data Center stocks list so that all Access members could start nibbling on our expanded AI Data Center Tech Stack leader on down days. Who knew then that we would get the
1) Trump Put (i.e., the market down 20% was the "blink" level, and Trump started to back off the draconian tariff threats, which have put the 2026 Congressional elections at risk with 68% negative ratings on the Trump Presidency
My best DC GOP insider, Kevin Kellmen (35 years assistant to POTUS, VPs, and Secretaries of State) shared with me this weekend that
"Toby--the GOP establishment sees both the market meltdown, the record high NEGATIVE ratings for Trump via the insane tariff war, and bleak economic outlook as a very likely 2026 midterm election SLAUGHTER for GOP congressmen/women--real potential to lose House majority.
All the above means the current administration HAS TO get rid of the reciprocal part of the tariffs. They CAN pull the economy back from the brink, and Bessent is now the lead dog in the negotiation teams. He can claim victory from the jaws of defeat IF he can get Tariff Trumpy to STFU on China negotiations.
2) The Fed Put--weak job numbers and negative GDP from the Atlanta Fed GDP Now Index say the Fed starts to cut rates at their June meeting (and interest rate futures have four rate cuts in 2025.
Latest estimate: 1.1 percent — May 01, 2025
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 1.1 percent on May 1, down from 2.4 percent on April 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 3.3 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and -0.7 percent.
3) The Global AI Data Center Spending "Put" ALL the AI hyper-scalers reported over a $5.2 trillion in capex over the next five years
A new report by McKinsey suggests that data centers equipped to handle AI processing loads are projected to require approximately $5.2 trillion in capital expenditures through 2030. This includes investments in infrastructure necessary to support AI workloads and increased demand for compute power 2.
4) THE US DOLLAR "Put" All global hardware and software sellers will get significant new SALES from foreign currency exchange rates--like a 10% lower price!
Key Point A ) The market got crazy oversold by April 19. B) Hedge funds, which went way too long going into April 2, had to de-lever. C) Retail investors bought the dips which D) brought momentum algos back to the party.
4) The SP 500 held 4800-key 200 WEEK support
Actions to Take: 1) PUT Sell Stops 10% under GOLD & Silver $SILJ $SLVO $GDXJ $GDXU $GDXY (30 %+ dividend)
2) Here is our master list of the primary AI Data Center Tech Stack plays and Infrastructure Components and Players --I'll update our Buy List in Part II--but ANY of these plays above their 50-day moving averages are a buy here--
Finally, here are some critical updates on your Transformity Research subscriptions.
Since we had many problems getting our digital systems back up and running. While we have renewed over 70% of our TR Ultra Growth and All-Access subscriptions, way above average for the investment research publishing world. We have extended the non-renewed subscriptions to May 2.
Here is the subscription link for TR Ultra Growth renewals --1 and 2-year subscriptions--gett'r done
The same goes for All-Access memberships—we will close the existing All-Access Discord Trading Room very soon and send new invitations to those who have renewed their one-year or two-year All-Access Pro subscription (which now includes TR Ultra Growth and Ultra Monthly Income subscriptions!).
Here is the All-Access PRO subscription renewal link One Year
Note: The renewal system is working perfectly now--but if you are still having a problem getting in, EMAIL Gary The Tech Support Guy at gary.hlusko@gridtech.io
Toby
Tobin Smith--Founder/CIO Transformity Research/Wealth Management/Transformity Capital Markets